UO is one that we cannot beat simply by asking people to be rational and Government will need to take forceful action, if they wish to curb deaths from COVID-19. Governments are not going to get people who are in the grips of UO about COVID-19, thinking it will not happen to them, to practice social distancing / isolation, unless governments enforce it. There is no good evidence that Unrealistic Optimism can be reduced giving information to people to show that their belief is irrational does not work, nor does giving them information that they may be ‘somewhat wrong’ (although the latter may more effective in providing a slight shift Jefferson et al., (2017)). ![]() The phenomenon has been replicated in various populations and with various stimuli.Įxperiments have taken place to see how we can correct this irrational thinking in people. ![]() ![]() What we are seeing at the moment, people ignoring government advice on social distancing and going about their normal day as if all is well, is the result of what is known in the behavioural science literature as ‘Unrealistic Optimism’ (first identified by a US psychologist, Neil Weinstein in the 1980), Unrealistic Optimism or Optimistic Bias is the observation that people are hard- wired to irrationally believe that negative events (ranging from catching a cold, to failing an exam to getting divorced, to falling off your bike) are more likely to happen to the ‘average other person’ than themselves. Thank you for an insightful piece of writing.
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